I’ve been keeping an eye on the property market lately, hoping to find a larger apartment. Besides viewing properties, I’ve also made a habit of checking the National Statistics Institute (INE) data, especially the monthly reports on property sales. I feel this data, much like the [Property Transfer Tax (ITP)], offers a more accurate reflection of market activity than property prices alone, so I wanted to share it and start a discussion.
Overall Trend: Transaction Volume is Slowing Down
Looking at the data from the last few months, it’s clear that compared to the boom last year, the overall transaction volume is gradually slowing down. For instance, in Madrid and Barcelona, which I’m closely monitoring, the market is still active, but the growth momentum has weakened. This is likely related to the European Central Bank’s interest rate hikes. Higher mortgage rates mean many people have to recalculate their budgets, leading to more caution.
Resale properties are still the main driver, but new builds are starting to attract attention. Some friends of mine have mentioned that with resale prices so high, they’d rather consider a new build if the price difference isn’t significant in certain areas, as it saves them the hassle of renovation. However, the supply of new properties is limited, especially in prime locations. Therefore, the resale market remains the absolute dominant force in the [property closing process].
A Regional Data Breakdown & The [NIE for Property Transfer]
I’ve put together a simple summary of the data for a few popular autonomous communities to give you a quick overview. These figures represent relative changes, not absolute numbers, which I think tells a clearer story.
| Autonomous Community | Recent Transaction Volume Trend |
|---|
| Andalusia | Significant slowdown, especially in coastal resort areas |
| Catalonia | Relatively resilient, strong demand in Barcelona city |
| Community of Madrid | Growth rate is decreasing, but total volume remains high |
| Valencian Community | Driven by foreign buyers, but local purchasing power is weakening |
This table is just a rough snapshot, and there are fluctuations every month. But overall, the coastal areas that saw the sharpest price hikes before are now experiencing the most noticeable correction. In contrast, markets driven by primary residence demand, like Madrid, have a very stable foundation, even though they’ve also slowed down.
I feel like the market is currently transitioning into more of a ’buyer’s market.' Sellers are not as confident in setting high asking prices as they were last year, and there’s more room for negotiation. For those of us looking for a primary residence, this might be a good time to calmly search for the right property. Of course, mortgage rates are a major headache, so everyone needs to make decisions based on their own financial situation. What are your thoughts from your recent property viewings? Has the market really cooled down? Let’s discuss!
