EU’s New Regulation Targets Low-Value Cross-Border Goods
The EU is planning a new tax policy for cross-border e-commerce, proposing a fixed fee of around €3 per package for all imported parcels valued under €150. This policy primarily affects goods from China and aims to strengthen consumer protection, support local European businesses, and address the environmental issues associated with cross-border shipping. Although the policy is not yet final, its potential impact has already drawn widespread market attention.
Significant Reaction from Spanish Consumers
According to a survey report by the research institute Observatorio Cetelem, this policy, dubbed the “Euro-tax,” will significantly alter the shopping habits of Spanish consumers. The data shows that if the new tax is implemented, as many as 56% of respondents indicated they would reduce their spending on Asian e-commerce platforms. Among them, 19% of consumers would switch to buying local European products, while only 18% stated their spending habits would not change. Notably, the most price-sensitive groups are young people aged 18-29 and seniors over 60.
Shein’s Market Position in Spain Under Threat
Spain is a core European market for Asian e-commerce giants like Shein, AliExpress, and Temu. Currently, Shein leads the market in Spain with a 49% usage rate, followed closely by AliExpress (45%) and Temu (40%). Shein enjoys an extremely high preference rate of over 60% among young consumers aged 18-29. However, this core user group is precisely the one most sensitive to the new tax policy, making Shein potentially the most severely impacted company by this tax adjustment.
Growth Expectations Slow, Future Expansion Under Pressure
Affected by the combined impact of the new EU regulation and other international trade policies (such as US tariffs on Chinese products), the growth prospects for Asian fast-fashion e-commerce are beginning to look uncertain. The German e-commerce consulting firm ECDB predicts that the expansion speed of Shein and Temu will slow down noticeably by 2026. Shein’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is projected to fall to around $70 billion in 2026, with its growth rate nearly halved compared to 2025. While Temu may still maintain a lead in scale, its growth rate is also expected to drop from the high levels of the previous two years to below 14%.
