Unprecedented Surge in Seismic Activity
Recent data from Spain’s National Geographic Institute (IGN) reveals that volcanic seismic activity on Tenerife has reached an unprecedented “abnormal” state since the beginning of 2026. To date, the island has recorded ten seismic swarms—thousands of micro-earthquakes occurring in a short period. In contrast, only six such events were recorded in the entire nine-year span from 2016 to 2025. This comparison highlights the current intensity of geological activity.
Official Assessment: Low Short-Term Eruption Risk
Despite the significant increase in seismic activity, the scientific community assesses the risk of a volcanic eruption in the short term as “low.” Itahiza Domínguez, the head of IGN in the Canary Islands, noted that the current activity is consistent with the normal behavior of an active volcanic system, indicating magma accumulation beneath the island. Experts predict that a future eruption is more likely to form a new basaltic volcano on the island’s northeast ridge—similar to the 2021 eruption on the neighboring island of La Palma—rather than an eruption from the main volcano, Mount Teide. Based on historical data models, the probability of a volcanic eruption on Tenerife in the next 50 years is estimated to be around 40%.
Upgraded Monitoring and Warning Signs
In response to this new situation, the advisory committee of the Special Civil Protection and Emergency Response Plan for Volcanic Risk in the Canary Islands (Pevolca) has convened and decided to increase the frequency of its risk assessment meetings to once every three months for closer dynamic monitoring. Currently, all detected earthquake epicenters are located deep underground, about 10 kilometers west of Mount Teide, with magnitudes below 1.5, making them unfelt by residents on the surface. However, experts warn that perceptible earthquakes cannot be ruled out in the future. “Clear indicators” of an elevated eruption risk would include sustained seismic activity migrating towards the surface, accompanied by measurable ground deformation or significant changes in the composition of volcanic gas emissions.
Historical Context and Future Uncertainty
Looking back, the last volcanic eruption on Tenerife occurred in 1909. Historical records show that perceptible seismic activity can precede an actual eruption by months or even years. Itahiza Domínguez emphasized that while scientists remain on high alert and are using advanced equipment for continuous monitoring, it is currently impossible to predict the exact timing of the next eruption. It is also uncertain whether the current seismic activity will eventually subside or escalate into an eruptive event. Researchers will continue to closely monitor all data to guard against any potential changes.
