August Euríbor Rate Hits a Two-Year High
According to the latest preliminary data, the Euríbor, the benchmark interest rate for most variable-rate mortgages in Spain, closed August 2026 at 2.95%. This is the highest figure since August 2024, when it stood at 3.169%.
Specifically, the rate increased by 11 basis points from July and saw a significant year-on-year rise of 84 basis points compared to 2.112% in August 2025. This change has a notable impact on borrowers: for a typical 30-year, €150,000 variable-rate mortgage with a spread of ‘Euríbor + 0.99%’, an annual review in August would result in a monthly payment increase of approximately €70, leading to an annual increase of €843.
Rate Hike Expectations and Inflationary Pressure Are Key Drivers
Several analysts point out that the continued rise in Euríbor primarily reflects the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary tightening policy. Analysis from the Spanish loan comparison platform iAhorro suggests that Euríbor’s trend is closely linked to the ECB’s rate hikes. Similarly, experts from the financial platform Roams state that the market widely anticipates the ECB will decide on another 25-basis-point rate hike at its September monetary policy meeting, further supporting the high level of Euríbor.
Furthermore, external factors are heightening market concerns. Another analytics platform, Kelisto, notes that inflationary pressure sparked by the conflict in the Middle East is proving to be more persistent than expected. The agency stated, “The situation has clearly worsened compared to a month ago, significantly reducing the room for a noticeable short-term decline in Euríbor.”
Year-End Forecast: Likely to Remain at a High of 3%
Looking ahead to the end of 2026, analysts agree that the ultimate direction of Euríbor will largely depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. However, the general consensus is that the index will remain close to 3%, significantly higher than the 2.267% recorded at the end of 2025.
Kelisto provides two possible scenarios:
- Optimistic Scenario: If diplomatic efforts lead to the gradual normalization of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby easing energy prices, Euríbor could stabilize in the 2.8% to 3.0% range by the end of 2026.
- Pessimistic Scenario: If the conflict remains at a stalemate with no resolution in the second half of the year, Euríbor could reach 3% or even hit a high of 3.10% in December.
Regardless of the scenario, experts agree that households with mortgages will continue to face high interest rate pressure in the coming months.
